For today’s stock market live analysis, I’ll start out with the S&P 500 as I always do. This market just does not want to come down on the larger timeframe. If you’ve been buying stocks the last month or two or doing any S&P 500 investing at all, you’ve gotta be happy. But we’re also up in all-time-high territory so every day now is a voyage into the unknown. Momentum in the S&P seems to be slowing a bit, but we also appear to be in a wave 3 up which I expect to have a fair amount of upside yet to come, so I’m still bullish on the S&P at this time. The rising trendline has been an excellent support area and buying opportunity, and as long as the 13 EMA holds, I expect to see higher prices in the near to medium term.
The Russell 2000 e-mini is also trying to push higher, although it’s been the weak performer of all the primary indices recently. It’s been pretty much trapped in a range for the last couple of weeks and we need to see it break higher to confirm the continuation of the up trend. I’m not entirely happy with my wave counts in this market right now, and may adjust them as more information comes in. Regardless though, the dominant trend is up so that’s the direction I’m looking to trade. If you’re into the Russell 2000 futures and have a small account (like under $15k or so) I strongly recommend the new Micro contracts as a great “training wheels” vehicle for you.
If you’re looking for a gold futures analysis or do any gold futures trading, you’ll want to keep an eye on this triangle shaping up on the daily chart. It looks suspiciously like a bull pennant to me which if true, would suggest higher prices to come. I think it’s likely it could test the last high from 2016 very soon, giving us a wave 5 completion on the daily chart.
Now for a quick crude oil analysis. Crude oil and natural gas both actually are doing much the same thing, marching higher in up trending markets. My natural gas analysis at this moment suggests that maybe the daily wave 3 is complete, but I’m not likely to stick with that. On further inspection I think anyone who does natural gas trading would likely agree that this move is only just getting started, and could easily head higher. Crude oil is in a very similar position but has the added potential fuel of the conflicts in the Middle East.
And now for a quick Bitcoin analysis. The Bitcoin price today needs to hold above 9643 in order to confirm what I believe is a wave 2 completion, of a Daily wave 5 up. If Bitcoin breaks below this key level, then my analysis changes and I believe we are finally in a Wave C down, the final part of the wave 4 correction. But my bias is to that level holding, and a wave 3 of wave 5 up coming next. Let’s see what today brings us in the Bitcoin and crypto markets!
That’s it for today. If you like this analysis make sure to give it a Thumbs Up so I know people are finding value in them, because I do this all to help YOU in your trading.
See you Wednesday, and good trading!