Looking to trade the stock market? Beginners beware! It’s not for the faint of heart or wallet! Please learn before you try to earn.
First thing this morning is to look at the “stock market” live, AKA the S&P 500, the 800-pound gorilla and what people are usually talking about when you read stock market news. The stock market today is up just slightly, after a minor down day yesterday, and now it’s right at the daily uptrend line. My analysis at this time still suggests more upside to come, although the trend is starting to slow down slightly. But if we are in fact in a daily wave 3 up, then there’s the possibility that we push as high as the 3300 area. Of course, we have to stay above the last significant swing low and maintain our higher highs and higher lows for the S&P 500 index to have a chance of reaching those lofty heights. Shorter-term though we’re in a correction so if you’re a day trader or scalper you may want to trade to the downside.
In the Russell 2000 futures we’ve been stuck in a sideways choppy market for a while now, but it also looks a bit like a bull flag, so if we can break higher from here then I’m looking for upside from there possibly up to around 1772. What are the chances the Russell 2000 index will reach that level? Well just like comparing the Russell 2000 vs the s&p 500, we can’t know for certain until it happens. That’s what puts the risk in trading! But for sure watch out for that significant swing low because if that gets violated there’s a much larger problem in the market and the entire trend could change.
Now for crude oil trading, we’re getting a bounce right at the 50 SMA and the momentum seems to still be growing. If you’ve got a favorite long crude oil trading strategy this could be a nice time to employ it for a low-risk entry and upside continuation. The crude oil price has been climbing nicely but, are we done with the recent correction, or are we only just getting started? As usual, we don’t know until the market gives us the information, but we could have a little more downside yet to come. But if the recent highs are broken then clearly the trend is going to continue to the upside. Either way, the big picture direction is to the upside so be prepared to trade with that trend.
Now for those who like gold futures trading, my analysis shows a possible pennant forming on the daily at what I believe is the end of a wave 4, so the next move I’m looking for is to the upside. But ultimately this forecast and analysis need to see some confirmation in order to be acted upon, so so watch for price to head higher unless you are prepared for the risk of the unknown by entering long at this level.
Now on to natural gas futures trading. Definitely coming off of a rough day and a significant pullback. I’m reconsidering my wave count and if correct, then there’s some significant upside possible based on my natural gas futures analysis. If my analysis holds, nat gas could get almost to 3.00 based on past supply levels and my estimation of the Elliott wave counts. Watch for a break of the recent highs, or low, and expect a continuation in either direction. Ultimately it’s all about the price action, never forget that.
And now it’s time to talk Bitcoin. Whatever your Bitcoin trading strategy may be, this is a highly volatile instrument so be careful. I’ve recently re-thought my wave counts and I now believe we are entering the final stage of a wave 4 ABC correction, after which we should see a wave 5 push to the upside. Wave C looks like it might be just about done but we can’t know that for sure quite yet. Watch for higher highs and higher lows to form, and you’ll have the confirmation you want. I know this isn’t a Bitcoin trading channel per se, but I’ve been a crypto fan for several years now and I’m always keeping an eye on the Bitcoin price action and if you’re into crypto, I’m sure you do too. Just be prepared for an eventual test of the all-time highs at which point I expect significant resistance, so watch out and take your profits before someone else takes them from you!
Until Friday… trade well!
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